Africa 2050: Priced to Perfection?
Investors are betting on a $29tn future while ignoring 2025’s immediate red flags. But with yields hitting double digits, the cost of the "bridge to 2050" may be the very thing that breaks it.
The 2050 demographic dividend is the primary driver of current African sovereign appetite, yet the cost of bridging the next 24 months is reaching a critical inflection point.
Using proprietary data from ISI’s REDD Sovereigns, this analysis examines the growing disconnect between immediate fiscal volatility and long-term macro projections. We evaluate the sustainability of double-digit yields against a projected $29 trillion continental GDP.
Key Analysis Points:
• The $29tn Question: Can the 2050 demographic dividend survive today’s borrowing costs?
• The "Silent" Squeeze: How local bank debt saturation in Senegal and Gabon is stifling the private sector.
• Default Archetypes: Why Angola’s reliance on total return swaps signals a high-risk pivot.
• The Nigeria Anomaly: Why a $2.3bn bond cleared 6x oversubscribed despite aid-cut threats.
Download the full technical brief for the complete data set and risk outlook.